Is RIM beyond hope?

It's been a while since I had written a post on RIM and thought that it is about time, given that I have some sort of fixation on them having to use them in my daily life. Anyone who has been watching the news recently knows that the company's stock has slid 5% down to $13.65 yesterday, now 75% lower than just 12 months ago, so things aren't going well and like me, everyone is sitting around waiting for RIM's last hurrah when the Blackberry OS10 devices come out.

RIM is in a terrible position right now and I don't at all envy Thorsten Hein's position having all the pressure to do something to try and salvage what is left of RIMs business. The only good news that we are seeing is that he and perhaps the board are starting to see the big picture and do something about it, only that it may be too late.

I think they have done good by:

• Removing Jim Ballsillie: This might be more symbolic than anything. But since he had been put into the role of CEO and both Mike Lazaridis and Jim Ballsillie landed softly into board rolls Thorsten has never been able to shake the stigma that he is just the puppet of the two former co-CEOs. Initially that's all that it looked like, he came in trumpetting their approach acting like there is nothing wrong, but by getting rid of Ballsillie (not sure about Mr. Lazaridis), they are giving us a sign that he can no longer contribute to the direction of the company and that he really does want things to change.
• Removing top exectutives: David Yach and chief operating officer Jim Rowan were let go as well as other high level staff. THE PROBLEM IS: While you are getting rid of the 'old' mentality you are going to have to replace them with new bodies. It may prove to be difficult to fill all these high level positions in a short time considering their big turnaround HAS to happen this year.
• Admitting the difficulties that RIM is facing: It is about time that someone flat out said what was going on with the company. Jim & Mike were always trying to put a spin on the reasons that RIM was faltering and trying to evangelize their plans for a turn around even though it would never materialize. This will give investors and your average person more confidence in a CEO that admits there is a problem rather than living in a time bubble back when everything was still good. 
• Developing mobile fusion: I was skeptical of this from the start because I thought this would almost definitely cannibalize the sale of their blackberry devices. But since most people are now opting for Android and iOS devices nowadays, I am fairly confident that at some point in the future there will be no blackberry hardware. Mobile Fusion is putting the focus on their back end infrastructure and what is rapidly becoming their most important asset. 
• Putting a sale of the company or its assets on the table: Old co-CEOs would have only mentioned that they were open to licensing the blackberry OS, as if anyone would want anything to do with what is behind the demise of the company. Putting all the options on the table is good news because it leaves the possibility of a sale out there that could help with investment and also confidence that no option is off the table. THE PROBLEM IS: RIM might be too far gone to be sold, given that it has lost nearly all of it's value. The only thing left that I believe could be purchased is their patents and their back end infrastructure.

What I don't think they have done well:

• Communicate their direction & message well: Thorsten doesn't seem to be able to communicate direction or if they really pulling out of the consumer market. I have always thought that if they were having issues that they should focus on their core business and try and fix that the consumer part of their business seems to have made them scatterbrained so that they lose focus and what they should prioritize (Playbook, Storm, Torch). THE PROBLEM IS: The consumerization of IT is already in full swing, no one wants to carry 2 devices anymore and want their 1 perfectly capable phone to do everything. They do sort of have their bases covered with Mobile Fusion, but their hardware business is pretty much finished in my opinion.
• What about the blackberry ecosystem? We don't know what is going happen to BBM or the integration they were speaking of when making deals with the recording industry for Blackberry music. What will happen to all the money invested in music deals for the blackberry music?  
• Bad publicity: On top of the drunken executives that forced an emergency landing, there was a stabbing at a promotional concert for BBM which seems to have overshadowed the event itself, just like the drunken executives did.
• Provide message of hope to developers: I am not sure that I have seen any indication in news or otherwise that developing for Blackberry is going to be worth your while. I am seeing that developers will get a free BB10 device, but I don't see them providing any guarantees that they will be handsomely rewarded for developing on a platform that has every indication of failing at some point in time. They should be offering nearly 100% profit for the apps and other incentives to catch developer interest, everyone knows that if you want to make money you develop for iOS and Android, but they need a really good reason to develop for blackberry now.
• Trying to market an old OS: When they knew they would not be able to ship the BB10 devices on time they decided to drop some money on advertising BB7.  Anyone who has seen any of the ads can only see improvements in providing: Mobile Hotspot (which will be promptly shutoff by most IT policies in addition to WiFi), NFC (no one uses this for payment yet, for now is just a buzz word), WiFi Calling (this is just software, most likely it is provided by carriers, but other apps like Nimbuzz had it since at least 2009), FM Radio (nice to have, but virtually no one uses it), AutoSuggest (Not that I have seen it, but it is most likely tied into google somehow). There really is nothing compelling me to buy a BB7 device, especially since there is no guarantee that my BB7 device can run BB10 when it eventually comes out. You do have to sell the devices, that is a given, but I don't think anyone is naive enough to think that BB7 is a major revolution in the OS... since in my opinion we haven't seen that yet at all (BB2 - BB7, the only things I have seen as improvements are music, camera, expandable memory and some apps. The OS is fundamentally the same... the only real big change I remember is going from a C based OS to a Java based OS). 

I honestly think that for the most part, RIM is beyond salvaging in it's current form as it is too late to catch up with other hardware makers. No one will honestly want to purchase a BB10 version 1.0 phone with no applications when you can get a fully featured Android or iOS device, you would deliberately be committing  yourself to issues similar to those that occurred with the Playbook and OS updates/fixes. So that being said, this is how I see the future of RIM:

•  RIM gets purchased outright: I can see either Amazon (because Jeff Bezos seems to love RIM) or Microsoft purchasing RIM. Amazon has the kindle, kindle fire to tie into their ecosystem, but they do not have a phone. They could use RIM to break into the enterprise and also to manufacture Android phones to fit the hardware that they are missing when compared to Apple/Google. Microsoft could purchase them just to deepen their foothold in the enterprise and lock down Windows Phone 7 as the only enterprise capable phone (probably getting rid of Mobile Fusion save for Windows Phones). Windows Phone 7 definitely needs some sort of edge in hopes of catching up to Android and iOS, so anything could help.
• RIM leaves the hardward business and focuses entirely on enterprise software: They are already well positioned to do this with Blackberry Mobile Fusion, so they could pool there resources around owning Enterprise Device Management and E-Mail. To this day there is still no device that does e-mail better, so if they can enable this on Android & iOS phones (like they did with the PalmTreo650) then they would own that space. Good technologies is attempting to take ownership of this space, so they would be their biggest competitor. RIM could then live off the licensing fees of Mobile Fusion and look for other areas where they could add value.
• RIM switches to Android: I am not entirely sure on this, but it is possible that if BB10 is a complete flop, that it would be far less expensive for them to become an Android handset maker in addition to being an enterprise device management leader. So if you can't get the developers to come to you, you can go to Android where the developers are and continue to make money on handsets as well as licensing. Mobile fusion would then theoretically allow them to do this almost seamlessly as they are trying to address the BYOD movement with the software already. 

I don't really see too many options beyond these, and time is of the essence for the sale of the company as it has lost so much of it's value it may not be worth selling. I do think they can succeed as an enterprise software provider and I fully expect them to do something like this if BB10 turns out to be a complete flop.

I wish them the best, I really do. I don't hate them, I just hate the OS and it's lack of functionality. I will be watching their developer conference with interest (to get an idea of what BB10 is like and its functionality). Come November, if we are not blown away by the new devices and software I can see one of the above scenarios playing itself out.

Whited00r no more

You could call it a beta test or a test drive perhaps to explain my short time spent with Whited00r, 12 days to be exact. It's not that I don't like Whited00r, I certainly do, but I had 2 specific reasons why I did not want to keep using the custom OS.

Initially, when I had installed Whited00r, I was wowed by the speed gain that I had received on my device vs. the previous iOS version I had installed (4.0.1). I was jumping around between applications quickly, sluggishness was gone and multi-tasking was setup really well and I literally had no problems at all and not a single care in the world. So I continued for days, very happy that I had a functioning and non-sluggish phone before I ran into problem #1.

Problem #1:

I have a set of applications that I use on a regular basis (as of course everyone does) that I really like to have and because I had to setup the phone from scratch, they weren't synced back on, so naturally I wanted to re-install them. Up to this point I really never did have a reason to open the Apple app store or even care that it was not there (knowing that I only had the Whited00r version called 3store). But when I dug into it a bit, I found that it was kind of a pain to get Apple sanctioned apps back on my phone because (as previously mentioned) I had synced back my previous Safari bookmarks and lost any that Whited00r would have provided me. But before I fixed my link to the Apple app store, I thought I would take a look through the 3 store and try it out to see how it worked. I found 3 applications that I actually wanted to install:

1. Facebook
2. Twitter
3. Citrix

So I went ahead and tried to install them via the 3store. Once I did, I was a bit put off by the way that it does the install... not to say it was bad, but wasn't what I thought was an ideal experience. When you go to install anything or search for anything, 3store essentially just does an internet search (with additional keywords on top of yours) for .ipa files. You end up getting directed to rapidshare or some other service like that to download the .ipa file, which made me sort of appreciate the walled garden of the Apple app store... not knowing if these .ipa files had been tampered with. Eventually though I had everything installed that I wanted from that store, but was not quite finished. So I took another couple hours to figure out just how I could get a good working link to the actual Apple app store, which I had updated my previous post with for those who ran into the same problem. Once I was finally in I went looking for the other apps that I use most often:

• Netflix: Essential for those times when you are too lazy to pull it up on your TV/PS3/Tablet or computer.
• Hootsuite: Essential for those who frequent both Facebook and Twitter... if only they could add G+.
• Orb: To access some of my home content while I am out, much like slingbox.
• GoTasks: AMAZING task manager that syncs back to your Google Tasks.
• Podcaster: So I can (sans-iTunes) wirelessly download all my tech podcasts. Good... but memory hog.

But then ran into problem #2.

Problem #2:

None of the apps I wanted/needed are available on iOS3, which is something that I did expect going into this. The problem is, for me, maybe you too, that despite the speed and refinements offered by Whited00r I spend everyday looking at someone that doesn't have any app restrictions (wife) and asking myself  "Do I want performance, or do I want my apps?"... eventually the apps won out as I could no longer resist the temptation to get them back, which really does say something about apps doesn't it? It is no wonder people are always stuck upgrading to newer hardware because the software is sooo compelling that you can't afford to be left behind... I am actually dreading the day when the iOS5+ apps start to dominate the Apple app store.

So... here I am, back on good old iOS4.0.1 (why 4.0.1? because http://jailbreakme.com is easy and doesn't mess up applications the way that GreenP0ison or others do, you know... mail link to page and then Springboard kacks on you). The performance doesn't seem to be as terrible as I remember it to be... but at least I have all of my apps back.

Is Blackbery Mobile Fusion an admission of defeat?

RIM has just recently announced that it will be including in it's Blackberry Enterprise Server (BES) the ability to manage Android and iOS phones, something that up to this point has been key in making Blackberry 'the' enterprise phone as this is how the devices are secured.


Things haven't been going well for RIM, it was once the 'hot' stock, trading around $88.08 in November 2009 and is as low as $18/share thanks to many a bad decision and no feasible plan to turn that price around. I am not a trader and I don't write about RIM on a regular basis (that's probably obvious), but I am left wondering if RIM actually intends to turn things around or if this announcement is actually a backup plan.


I think they are planning for their eventual failure in the phone market as it doesn't really make sense to provide a tool that would allow big enterprise to use non-Blackberry phones. It feels like they are trying to grab on to something that would still keep them in the enterprise even if the Blackberry were to eventually fade away, and if that ever happened you would probably see some sort of Blackberry e-mail software for other devices akin to 'Blackberry Connect'. If it does work the way that I think it does and is implemented, you can almost guarantee that executives in every enterprise will be clamoring for the latest iOS or Android device, since securing the devices was the only thing preventing that in the first place. It will also almost guarantee that there will be a steady decline in RIM's phone market share. Maybe it is not as simple as that, perhaps they have somethng up their sleeves that would make using a Blackberry worthwhile.


But in order to turn things around, RIM would have to understand what is most affecting them and it doesn't seem that they do. I personally think what is most affecting them is a combination of what the anonymous high-level RIM employee had stated (stagnation and endless levels of bureaucracy) and R&D on a more capable OS on par with iOS.


Back in the day (pre-2007) most people thought that there could very few phones that could compete in RIM's space. I remember at the time, that I could either have the Blackberry or a Treo 650, though I did love PalmOS, it was not a phone that you could really rely on as it would crash regularly and the interface/device was clunky by comparison. My Curve 8300 on the other hand was stable, just started having multimedia features running on Blackberry OS4 which was wirelessly syncing my calendar, tasks and memos back to the Exchange server... who could compete with that?


Apple could, it took a little bit of time to get people to leave the comfort of rock solid e-mail, BBM and a physical keyboard, but they have done it. RIM has had more than enough time respond to the iPhone and here is how they chose to do it:

• The blackberry storm: Came out in November 2008 and ran OS5 and you had to physically 'click' the screen down for it to acknowledge a key press. Don't know what they were thinking, perhaps that only the touch screen made the phone?

• The blackberry storm2: Came out in October 2009 again running OS5 which still had the physical 'click', but not quite as bad as the first iteration. This is just a response to the unusable touch screen of the first storm and nothing more.

• The blackberry torch: Came out in August of 2010 the first device to run OS6 and the only touch screen blackberry that was ever 'like' and iPhone/Android phone.

So from June 2007 (the iPhone release) the best they could do for 1 year and 4 months is a device that almost everyone regretted buying due to the touch screen and general bugginess. It then took another 3 years to finally get a real 'hardware' answer to the iPhone but was was still no where close to competing with it in software.


With that being said and with all of the news of the last year, I am fairly positive that there is no clearly defined plan for Blackberry's future. In 4 years they have not figured out a way to make Blackberry phones compelling enough to buy or develop for.
After the iPhone initially launched the first thing they should have done was to figure out how a Blackberry device stands up to an iOS device. I am not sure who they had looking at it, but clearly the first thing RIM should have done was to speed up all OS development and try to create an ecosystem. Of course that is exactly what RIM didn't do and for whatever reason they decided only to mimic the device in hardware.
Software has been a disaster on the Blackberry and since the handset is only as good as the software running on it, it is no wonder people are choosing other phones. In terms of core functionality the Blackberry did it's job well and still provided e-mail to it's corporate users. But regular consumers are not going to be happy with just e-mail, they want their games, Facebook and Twitter in addition to their e-mail. This is where the disconnect begins because almost every consumer who has lived life on a Blackberry for a few years is blown away by what is possible on an iPhone (and Android) and it will most likely what they end up with when when they renew their contracts.


I have had a blackberry ever since the monochrome 957 (when it wasn't even a phone) and I have not seen any major improvements in the software over time, or at least not the type of changes you would expect would stand up to iOS and Android. It is the same display of icons, with the same standard blackberry applications (e-mail, calendar, tasks, memos). The Blackberry has only ever really gained the ability to play media and take pictures/videos other than that, it is fundamentally the same in most ways to Blackberry OS2 that ran on that 957. The only software that I have find to be worth mentioning in all of App World is:

• Nimbuzz
• UberTwitter
• Facebook (for every phone)
• File Scout
• Gmail
• Gmail Sync
• Opera Mini (a must for every blackberry, even OS6)
• Drive Safe.ly (don't ever use)
• Player for YouTube
• YellowPages
• Linked In
• Citrix
• Google Maps

Blackberry OS 4, 5, 6 and 7 are virtually the same with just UI fixes and social feeds, so there really isn't anything worth mentioning. RIM is just stalling by releasing it's latest Bold and Torch, there is absolutely nothing that makes them any different than previous versions (with the exception that the Bold for some reason has a touch screen).


So just to recap, since June of 2007, 4 years and 5 months ago all we have is a touch screen device running the same OS all blackberries have shared for years, only slightly better. I have deliberately neglected to mention the other devices and the distraction that is the Playbook, but with this much time between the debut of the iPhone and now, how can we expect anything to be different? All I expect is more disappointments and missed targets... possibly an acquisition.


I don't mean to be down on RIM, I was rooting for them for a long time but I am through hoping that they will come from behind and reclaim what they are losing. I can only offer up what I think they should do to come back:

• Shake up management. Put someone in charge that will change things up. The days of the CO-CEOs stating that everything is fine and that they have a plan are over.
• Split the blackberry devices into consumer and enterprise phones. If the problem is that you can't move fast due to the enterprise, create a consumer phone that is on par with the iphone to give you the time to upgrade the enterprise phones to the same level.
• Pause the Playbook. It is taking far too much time and attention when their core business is suffering. The iPad owns that space and RIM is too far behind application wise to even come close to being competition for it.
• Refocus on the OS for the device. Take all the focus that was placed on the distraction that is the Playbook and make a phone that competes with the iPhone or Android. Once the OS is finished, entice developers, give them a better deal than can be found anywhere else 80/20 or 90/10 the platform is going to be built on them. It should be easy enough that developers won't even blink an eye at wanting to develop for it and at the very least they should be #3 in the development order, the first 2 being iOS and Android.
• Build an ecosystem. Though they are trying with BBM Music, they are putting far too much focus into 1 specific Blackberry application. They should be building it into App World, where the store front is and emulating iTunes just like the Android Marketplace and the XBox MarketPlace (or whatever it is called) is doing. You want to give people the apps, music, video and everything else they need in one spot and you want to have enough content there to keep people interested.

But what do I know? I am but a humble tech employee.

Update: Here is an article not even 24 hours from the post describing their predicament (because of the playbook) http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rim-to-miss-targets-take-playbook-hit/article2257745/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheGlobeAndMail-Front+%28The+Globe+and+Mail+-+Latest+News%29&service=mobile


Update2: Seems that CNN Money agrees with me: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/30/rims-new-motto-if-you-cant-beat-them-join-them/?section=magazines_fortune&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmagazines_fortune+%28Fortune+Magazine%29