10 Reasons why Blackberry 10 might be dead before arrival

I have been watching the news as of late, reading the news and hearing rumours that lead me to believe that it is basically over for RIM, the blackberry is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. I am going to lay out all of my points here and elaborate on them a bit as well as pointing to some recent articles out there.

Now I know that virtually everyone thinks they are doomed to fail (you could be hard pressed to find any positive news on anything other than a blackberry fan site) and I want to believe that they will continue to be a player, but as I have said before, they have not produced anything that could build any sort of confidence.

RIM in my opinion is destined to be sold, most likely on the heels of the release of BB10 if it isn't well received. So the way I figure it, by or before the end of 2013 RIM will be a part of some other company or private equity firm.

So here are the reasons why I think it is over:

1 - Let's start with Blackberry World

Let's face it, Blackberry World was officially the place where we were supposed to be the reason we believe that there will be a come back for RIM and they completely let us down. Can anyone honestly say they would invest time and money in a company who does not show their progress on the OS and hardware of the next generation of Blackberries? Of course not.

They showed off a car running QNX, though it is neat, it will never see the light of day. They also showed off the Blackberry 10 software keyboard which looks neat, but let's face it, Blackberry = Keyboard. But where was the Blackberry device we are supposed to be later in the year? No where. Instead the only thing that was shown was an 'Alpha' device looking very much like an iPhone4 that may or may not be the hardware that will be manufactured before the end of the year.

Bottom Line:

They can wine and dine participants all they want (some of which I understand had their trips paid for) but if you do not show the future of Blackberry here, no one knows what the future of Blackberry will look like and will not have any confidence that you will make it there.

Related Article:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/30/rim-2/

2 - The RIM 'Porche' event

Though this really doesn't have any signifigance in terms of the direction of RIM, it baffles me that they would even hold such an event considering the situation they are in.

RIM is on deaths door and they grab media attention by releasing a very expensive already obsolete device that doesn't really look that good. Sure it might have been created by top designers, but seriously, in a time where you are cutting jobs, stock is losing value and investor confidence is out the window, RIM decides to show of a $2,000 BB7 device.

If anything it just proves that they lack direction and tact, even if they didn't design the device as many articles indicate, what good is it to have a story like this in the media?

Bottom Line:

Even if some rich movie stars buy the blackberry 'Porche', no one else will be. If there is going to be any news coverage it SHOULD be focused on something positive that has a relevant message.

Related Article: 

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rims-attempt-to-stand-out-from-the-crowd/article4271845/?service=mobile

3 - First BB10 device will lack a keyboard

I know ths may be minor to some people, but in a time like this RIM is supposed to play on the strengths that they have left one of which is the keyboard on the device. If it doesn't have a keyboard, then the device is really no different than an iOS or Android device, and if that is the case, why would anyone choose it over the others?

That's right, no one would because it is too little too late. By this time we all own other devices with loads of applications, why would we give that up to just to go Blackberry 10, for the OS? I doubt it. The only people that would are enterprise users, but how can they get anything done without a keyboard?

Want insult to injury? BB7 devices cannot go to BB10, guess what their next device is going to be?

Bottom Line:

Without a keyaboard they have overlooked the only individuals who could possibly be interested in moving to BB10. The reception of the device will be ice cold.

Related Articles:


http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp;jsessionid=02344C003D5F9DA84C139E8710A7F16F?rssid=4220853&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fworld%2frim-says-first-blackberry-10-device-will-not-have-a-physical-keyboard%2f2012%2f06%2f21%2fgJQAbDJosV_mobile.mobile&cid=-1&spf=1

http://www.macnn.com/articles/12/05/02/blackberry.7.apps.said.to.be.compatible.with.bb10/

4 - Their focus is consumer not enterprise

With all the coverage there hasn't been much said or shown that would give you a sense on what strategy RIM has to keep it's enterprise stronghold. All I know off the top of my head is that it will have a virtual keyboard that is supposedly neat and a camera that can adjust time. I haven't heard when it will be ready for the enterprise, if it works with existing BES, if encryption and IT policies will remain the same or if it will even function remotely like a BB7 device.

If I am an enterprise and I am looking to deploy some new devices, or know what Mobile Fusion does, shouldn't we be seeing how BB10 and Mobile Fusion were made for each other? Or at the very least be given the expectation that when we deploy a BB10 device, that it will be no different than how a Blackberry is deployed today.

It all seems to be focused on the consumer market, one that they are going to lose regardless of whether or not the BB10 device launch goes well. No one is going to switch.

Bottom Line: 

They have only a few strengths left: Their patents, their security, their keyboards, their network, their foothold in the enterprise. They are not playing on any of their strengths and they are not providing enterprises with a warm fuzzy feeling.

Related Article:

http://mashable.com/2012/05/01/rim-blackberry-10-strategy/

5 - The Microsoft Factor

Everyone knows that there are 2 mobile platforms duking it out to be #3 and their names are Microsoft and RIM. RIM has not shown anyone what is new and what direction that their business is going to move in, and Microsoft has partnered with Nokia to start selling Windows phone 7 devices.

That was, until the bomb that was the Los Angeles announcement of the 'Surface Tablets' happened. It was a very exciting announcement for sure, it lacked a lot of detail, but regardless it showed you the direction that Microsoft intended to move and that is straight for the enterprise.

Just look at the drastic changes they are making in Windows 8 and that it even has 2 versions Pro and RT. Couple this with the announcement of Windows Phone 8 and the fact that their 'System Centre 2012' can be used to provision any number of mobile devices.

So where is this going? Well, it is pretty much a direct answer to a companies BYOD problem. Let's see, right now people are:

• Bringing their blackberry and iPhone/Android phone to work.
• Bringing iPads and Android tablets into the workplace because of their portability.

Most people wish they could do everything in one device rather than carry a work phone and a personal phone, but people are not going to be doing this for much longer. They are also using tablets as if they are laptops, but like most people have issues doing day to day tasks such as accessing corporate e-mail or writing documents.

Now, enter the Windows 8 platform:

• System Centre can provision any device, but would probably do much better with a Windows 7 or 8 phone.
• The Surface Pro is practically in the enterprise as we speak. Almost any tech inclined titled officer that saw the presentation saw all of the posibilities that come with the Surface. No more 2 - 7 lb notebook, compatibility with business programs, compatibility for office documents and all this ties right back into Active directory and group policies. These things can be the best managed devices in the enterprise.

In the next 3 - 4 years, no one is going to be carrying a laptop computer it will be the equivalent of the desktop. The only people that will use them will need them for their power while the rest of us just need a PC that will surf the net, access our corporate e-mail and edit our documents.

This is the missing piece that no one has addressed, and if Microsoft can pull it off I think they stand a very good chance of usurping RIMs position in the enterprise and beating Apple and Google to the punch. And with the unique licensing deals that Microsoft has with pretty much every major company, why would they consider buying licenses for things like Mobile Fusion or Good Technology when it will probably come in a nice bundle with other enterprise licenses.

Bottom Line:

Microsoft will most likely take RIMs place in the enterprise and be the 'business' device. Probably won't make significant inroads in the consumer world initially, but that doesn't matter when you have the enterprises all locked up.

Related Articles:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406066,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03069TX1K0001121&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ziffdavis%2Fpcmag%2Fbreakingnews+%28PCMag.com+Breaking+News%29

http://techland.time.com/2012/06/21/why-microsofts-surface-unveiling-was-so-vaporous/

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406066,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03069TX1K0001121&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ziffdavis%2Fpcmag%2Fbreakingnews+%28PCMag.com+Breaking+News%29

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/10267849

6 - Investors are itching for a sale

And why wouldn't they be? These must be the most patient investors in the world with all of the lines they have had to hear from Ballsillie and Lazaridis over the years about how everything is just fine. I some times wonder to myself what would have happened to RIM if they had been a US company with US investors, would they already have been sold?

Either way, with the stock prices on a downward trend and no visible proof that BB10 will save the day I would be looking for a sale too.

Bottom Line:

RIM has disappointed investors for too long and have just broken the last straw by not proving that BB10 will save the company. They want RIM sold.

Related Article:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/31/rim-running-out-of-options/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FP_TopStories+%28Financial+Post+-+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

7 - Stock price and Layoffs

With all the "Goodbye Thursdays" starting up at RIM it makes you wonder what is going to be left at the end of it all. They have already laid off a bunch of staff earlier on and they are now ramping up to chop another 6000 jobs. And of course a company acting in this manner to save on operating costs pretty much shows that they are not in a good place, so the stock will continue to dive, almost a viscious circle.

But what will be left at the end of the day? That's quite a bit of their workforce gone, how will they keep up with the development? How long will it take people to fill or cover the gaps and ramp up? It almost seems like a natural death where the body shuts down parts of itself bit by bit, protecting the core until the very end.

Bottom Line: 

Layoffs will continue, stock will continue to decline, sooner or later they will start reaching into their reserves and when the stock is at it's lowest point ever, they will be purchased. It is not possible for them to catch up as Apple, Google and Microsoft's resources surpassed it even when it was in good shape.

Related Articles:

http://www.therecord.com/iphone/news/article/746194--rim-layoffs-have-begun

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/06/20/rim-stock-layoffs.html

8 - Development

Going back to blackberry world, how many developers want to develop for something that they have never seen, but just have been told that it is easy to develop for?

Recent news says that there are just 5,000 alpha devices out there for developers to work with, so how exactly do they expect developers to ramp up and prepare for the launch of the first BB10 devices? How are we as consumers to expect great applications at launch that compare in any way with what is already on the other platforms?

I don't even think that with the promise of a guaranteed $10,000 for an app can bring in enough developers to develop for the platform in general, let alone before launch. Even not being a mobile developer myself you have to ask yourself how a company that isn't doing well going to fork over $10,000 to every app developer? It probably isn't, it is probably a deal that is so mired in red tape and process that you would be lucky to see any money from RIM. They can't afford to do it.

Bottom Line: 

There aren't enough alpha devices nor developers to make enough compelling applications to launch with BB10. I say they will have some big name apps (probably push Angry Birds and Cut the Rope), but nothing significant. Even if they manage to get some good quality apps, no one is going to want to leave the well established app stores of Apple or Google.

Related Articles:

http://mobilesyrup.com/2012/06/18/rim-has-seeded-over-5000-blackberry-10-dev-alpha-devices-to-developers/

http://m.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2012/may/04/rim-blackberry-bb10-development?cat=technology&type=article

9 - RIM partner defection

We heard news this week that Celestica, a company that I understand does a lot of manufacturing for RIM is going to phase out production entirely. Has anyone ever heard a company publicly say that they are distancing themselves from RIM? Some have said it is in preparation for the BB10 device production, but I don't believe that.

This is probably a decision based purely on numbers, and I would think that if the BB7 devices haven't been selling well, then Celestica wouldn't have to manufacture a lot. So if they are now seeing a deep decline in RIM with no hope of recovery, why wouldn't they try to move into other areas to guarantee continued revenue?

Bottom Line:

I believe that this is a trend, and as RIM continues to decline expect to see more defections (though I will be honest, I have no idea how many partners there are).

Related Article: 

http://www.engadget.com/2012/06/18/celestica-phases-out-blackberry-related-production-for-rim/

10 - Rumours that BB10 and Mobile Fusion are not enterprise ready

Now I haven't seen many articles about this on the web, but I have heard from people in the field that there are problems with IT Policies and encryption... but I have absolutely no details on that, so take it wait a grain of salt.

I also haven't seen anything online to indicate that they are true or not, but if it is true, this would be the last nail in the coffin.

Bottom Line: 

If enterprises cannot come to expect equal or better enterprise security from RIM, then BB10 is dead on arrival in the enterprise. They need this guarantee, and if they don't get it, it might just make this BYOD thing a great idea.

Is RIM beyond hope?

It's been a while since I had written a post on RIM and thought that it is about time, given that I have some sort of fixation on them having to use them in my daily life. Anyone who has been watching the news recently knows that the company's stock has slid 5% down to $13.65 yesterday, now 75% lower than just 12 months ago, so things aren't going well and like me, everyone is sitting around waiting for RIM's last hurrah when the Blackberry OS10 devices come out.

RIM is in a terrible position right now and I don't at all envy Thorsten Hein's position having all the pressure to do something to try and salvage what is left of RIMs business. The only good news that we are seeing is that he and perhaps the board are starting to see the big picture and do something about it, only that it may be too late.

I think they have done good by:

• Removing Jim Ballsillie: This might be more symbolic than anything. But since he had been put into the role of CEO and both Mike Lazaridis and Jim Ballsillie landed softly into board rolls Thorsten has never been able to shake the stigma that he is just the puppet of the two former co-CEOs. Initially that's all that it looked like, he came in trumpetting their approach acting like there is nothing wrong, but by getting rid of Ballsillie (not sure about Mr. Lazaridis), they are giving us a sign that he can no longer contribute to the direction of the company and that he really does want things to change.
• Removing top exectutives: David Yach and chief operating officer Jim Rowan were let go as well as other high level staff. THE PROBLEM IS: While you are getting rid of the 'old' mentality you are going to have to replace them with new bodies. It may prove to be difficult to fill all these high level positions in a short time considering their big turnaround HAS to happen this year.
• Admitting the difficulties that RIM is facing: It is about time that someone flat out said what was going on with the company. Jim & Mike were always trying to put a spin on the reasons that RIM was faltering and trying to evangelize their plans for a turn around even though it would never materialize. This will give investors and your average person more confidence in a CEO that admits there is a problem rather than living in a time bubble back when everything was still good. 
• Developing mobile fusion: I was skeptical of this from the start because I thought this would almost definitely cannibalize the sale of their blackberry devices. But since most people are now opting for Android and iOS devices nowadays, I am fairly confident that at some point in the future there will be no blackberry hardware. Mobile Fusion is putting the focus on their back end infrastructure and what is rapidly becoming their most important asset. 
• Putting a sale of the company or its assets on the table: Old co-CEOs would have only mentioned that they were open to licensing the blackberry OS, as if anyone would want anything to do with what is behind the demise of the company. Putting all the options on the table is good news because it leaves the possibility of a sale out there that could help with investment and also confidence that no option is off the table. THE PROBLEM IS: RIM might be too far gone to be sold, given that it has lost nearly all of it's value. The only thing left that I believe could be purchased is their patents and their back end infrastructure.

What I don't think they have done well:

• Communicate their direction & message well: Thorsten doesn't seem to be able to communicate direction or if they really pulling out of the consumer market. I have always thought that if they were having issues that they should focus on their core business and try and fix that the consumer part of their business seems to have made them scatterbrained so that they lose focus and what they should prioritize (Playbook, Storm, Torch). THE PROBLEM IS: The consumerization of IT is already in full swing, no one wants to carry 2 devices anymore and want their 1 perfectly capable phone to do everything. They do sort of have their bases covered with Mobile Fusion, but their hardware business is pretty much finished in my opinion.
• What about the blackberry ecosystem? We don't know what is going happen to BBM or the integration they were speaking of when making deals with the recording industry for Blackberry music. What will happen to all the money invested in music deals for the blackberry music?  
• Bad publicity: On top of the drunken executives that forced an emergency landing, there was a stabbing at a promotional concert for BBM which seems to have overshadowed the event itself, just like the drunken executives did.
• Provide message of hope to developers: I am not sure that I have seen any indication in news or otherwise that developing for Blackberry is going to be worth your while. I am seeing that developers will get a free BB10 device, but I don't see them providing any guarantees that they will be handsomely rewarded for developing on a platform that has every indication of failing at some point in time. They should be offering nearly 100% profit for the apps and other incentives to catch developer interest, everyone knows that if you want to make money you develop for iOS and Android, but they need a really good reason to develop for blackberry now.
• Trying to market an old OS: When they knew they would not be able to ship the BB10 devices on time they decided to drop some money on advertising BB7.  Anyone who has seen any of the ads can only see improvements in providing: Mobile Hotspot (which will be promptly shutoff by most IT policies in addition to WiFi), NFC (no one uses this for payment yet, for now is just a buzz word), WiFi Calling (this is just software, most likely it is provided by carriers, but other apps like Nimbuzz had it since at least 2009), FM Radio (nice to have, but virtually no one uses it), AutoSuggest (Not that I have seen it, but it is most likely tied into google somehow). There really is nothing compelling me to buy a BB7 device, especially since there is no guarantee that my BB7 device can run BB10 when it eventually comes out. You do have to sell the devices, that is a given, but I don't think anyone is naive enough to think that BB7 is a major revolution in the OS... since in my opinion we haven't seen that yet at all (BB2 - BB7, the only things I have seen as improvements are music, camera, expandable memory and some apps. The OS is fundamentally the same... the only real big change I remember is going from a C based OS to a Java based OS). 

I honestly think that for the most part, RIM is beyond salvaging in it's current form as it is too late to catch up with other hardware makers. No one will honestly want to purchase a BB10 version 1.0 phone with no applications when you can get a fully featured Android or iOS device, you would deliberately be committing  yourself to issues similar to those that occurred with the Playbook and OS updates/fixes. So that being said, this is how I see the future of RIM:

•  RIM gets purchased outright: I can see either Amazon (because Jeff Bezos seems to love RIM) or Microsoft purchasing RIM. Amazon has the kindle, kindle fire to tie into their ecosystem, but they do not have a phone. They could use RIM to break into the enterprise and also to manufacture Android phones to fit the hardware that they are missing when compared to Apple/Google. Microsoft could purchase them just to deepen their foothold in the enterprise and lock down Windows Phone 7 as the only enterprise capable phone (probably getting rid of Mobile Fusion save for Windows Phones). Windows Phone 7 definitely needs some sort of edge in hopes of catching up to Android and iOS, so anything could help.
• RIM leaves the hardward business and focuses entirely on enterprise software: They are already well positioned to do this with Blackberry Mobile Fusion, so they could pool there resources around owning Enterprise Device Management and E-Mail. To this day there is still no device that does e-mail better, so if they can enable this on Android & iOS phones (like they did with the PalmTreo650) then they would own that space. Good technologies is attempting to take ownership of this space, so they would be their biggest competitor. RIM could then live off the licensing fees of Mobile Fusion and look for other areas where they could add value.
• RIM switches to Android: I am not entirely sure on this, but it is possible that if BB10 is a complete flop, that it would be far less expensive for them to become an Android handset maker in addition to being an enterprise device management leader. So if you can't get the developers to come to you, you can go to Android where the developers are and continue to make money on handsets as well as licensing. Mobile fusion would then theoretically allow them to do this almost seamlessly as they are trying to address the BYOD movement with the software already. 

I don't really see too many options beyond these, and time is of the essence for the sale of the company as it has lost so much of it's value it may not be worth selling. I do think they can succeed as an enterprise software provider and I fully expect them to do something like this if BB10 turns out to be a complete flop.

I wish them the best, I really do. I don't hate them, I just hate the OS and it's lack of functionality. I will be watching their developer conference with interest (to get an idea of what BB10 is like and its functionality). Come November, if we are not blown away by the new devices and software I can see one of the above scenarios playing itself out.

Abandoning the HSS-RIM

I was recently reading an article from the financial post that stated 12,635 US government employees next phone will be an iPhone rather than a Blackberry thanks to the General Services Administration which procures devices for the government. This comes right after Halliburton announced that 4,500 of its employees would be switching as well.

This is not entirely unexpected after the years of missteps by RIM, it is becoming a lot harder to have faith that they are ever going to do anything about it. Couple this with the 'consumerization of IT', where most people and some companies are willing to forgo a stable and secure e-mail system for one that has new slick hardware and a big repository of apps to select from. I actually think that this is just the tip of the iceburg when it comes to people moving off of RIM to other devices, and here why:


People will bypass enterprise security for features:

Most enterprises around the world have the blackberry for 2 reasons, security and reliability. This more or less means that if you are an enterprise employee in 2012 or before, you are for the most part going to have a blackberry to receive your corporate mail and calendar. That blackberry is most likely not going  to have access to anything useful and will drive those who want access to social networks or apps circumvent corporate security to get the features and applications they want on a phone. Corporate executives are typically the worst offenders for this by either being 'exempt from policy' or using another device that they like rather than the Blackberry.

People want to be social:

Everyone wants to be social, it's almost like now a days there is no choice... you simply have to be on Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and other social networks to find interesting information and connect with friends and family. Especially in the age of Twitter when you can post about everything that happens on your way through life, you want to be able to keep up with people and say what you want. Of course this could be a liability to the corporation especially if someone thinks you are saying something on their behalf, so you will find most devices have Facebook & Twitter locked down and or blocked on the network. This is changing slowly, but for the time being it is restricted for most and makes people do other things again... to get around the problem.

People want to use apps that will enhance their ability to work:

In the beginning there were really no applications that were compelling enough to actually want to put them on your iPhone. But nowadays, the 'app' is not only another way of interacting with customers, but can also be something that is used to enhance the employee experience. Even if there isn't a 'work centric' application for the iPhone, there are plenty of other applications on the phone that can enhance personal productivity. This is one of RIM's biggest weaknesses, as they are in mid-transition to a newer operating system, so their platform is technically in limbo. Would developers know what to develop for? OS7? OS10? HTML5? Are the tools even sufficient? Even if they are or eventually will be, are there enough Blackberry users left for them to make money? Bottom line, there is no comparison for application diversity.

People DO NOT want to carry 2 phones: 

This is an age old problem that started with pagers before the blackberry phased them out. But now that we have iPhones and all our media purchases locked into the Apple ecosystem and most of us don't really feel like using our Blackberries for music or anything else besides mail. So most of us carry the iPhone or Android phone to work for apps and music and the Blackberry only for enterprise email. No one wants to do this anymore, we all want the simplicity of having everything all in one device with some sort of magic protected area for sensitive corporate data.

Summary:

So even though the US government and Halliburton are switching from Blackberry to iOS is a drop in RIMs enterprise bucket, I believe that it is the beginning of a trend. With tablets becoming more commonplace, new apps coming out all the time and the amazing new phone hardware coming out constantly, whatever RIM is doing now is most likely too little too late.

If they are just releasing an update to the Playbook that 'should' have been Playbook 1.0 with no features other than what it should have shipped with initially, it doesn't spark too much confidence in what they will release as Phone OS v1.0. And even though the 'next gen' devices do look amazing from a hardware perspective, my guess is that is all it will be, hardware. RIM is great at hardware but it is the software that is going to make or break the phone and if the software ends up being remotely close to OS7, or its release is much like the original Playbook release, then I am afraid that their boat will be sunk.

I really hope they knock our socks off with that first new device, but we can't get our hopes up given their past promises. But you will definitely see what will become of RIM only a few short weeks after the initial release of the new phone. If it doesn't live up to the hype, they will be severely punished by the markets and will have lost the tiny bit of faith we are all holding onto for them.

RIM shakeup

The news seems to have hit the internet like a whirlwind, late Sunday night the world found out that not only were the co-CEOs Jim Ballsillie and Mike Lazaridis stepping down as CEOs (which apparently some employees were content with), they are also stepping down as chairs of the board leaving Thorsten Heins, an individual that they have been grooming for 5 years, formerly of Seimens to take the helm of their troubled company. News seems to have been taken well, their stock has been up in early trading, but don't expect that to last.

In the end, as many have already said I believe that the clock was ticking and they were running out of time. They had a report to deliver to their board showing just where they were going and why they should continue running the company in it's current form with the co-CEO structure. Their resignations to me are a signal of both defeat and an admission that they still don't have much to offer in the way of re-capturing or slowing the market share that they have lost to Android and iOS.

Much like Apple without Steve Jobs, I am sure that RIM has a lot of projects already in the pipeline so you won't see anything ground breaking from it's new CEO. In fact, he has said as much in the first hours of being CEO, the bulk of the articles interviewing him have him stating that they are going to be forging ahead with their current plans.  So, what's the difference? It almost seems to me that the loss of Jim & Mike is only a sacrifice to appease the gods of the board and that the new CEO is just a new face to place the fault of any upcoming failures upon.

To me the whole thing just looks like another big distraction, I really can't see the new CEO doing anything else but perhaps executing plans a bit differently and communicating a bit better than the previous CEOs. I really can't see a new CEO making a huge difference in the direction that RIM takes or digging the company out of the hole it currently sits. But the man has not been on the job too long, so we could be surprised.

So far this is all that I have heard of as being on tap for the company:

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Playbook 2.0:

So what? These are all the features that the tablet should have launched with.  Now we are supposed to be excited that it now has native e-mail (not sure how an e-mail company like RIM could have missed that in the first place) and the fact that we can remotely control the Playbook with your blackberry... which can easily be done in software by any other tablet. There is nothing exciting about this announcement.... it is just going to give back functionality they should have had in the first place.

Blackberry OS 10:

I like the idea of a different UNIX based OS coming out to compete with the other 2 (Android, iOS), but I feel that it is too little too late. Not only are they going to have problems getting developers to want to develop for the platform, it is very immature and people are not going to have the patience to wait around for bug fixes when they can have a better device from Google or Apple especially given how long it took to push out Playbook 2.0.

And this absurdity about licensing Blackberry 10? At best you would get a licensee because a company wants to differentiate their product... that's it. No one is going to license it because it will be an immature product with little to nothing to entice users into buying a phone with this OS. What's worse though would be the fact that RIM could no longer control the hardware and would now have to make Blackberry 10 work for all their licensees... would would no doubt create delays and make the whole development process more complex. They should not license the OS until it is mature and they have the ability to support other hardware... they can barely get it out of the door at this point.

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If this is what RIM going to continue to focus on as a company, according to the new CEO, then you can't really expect much to change. The only thing that I would expect to shake things up a little, or at the very least make the company answer to investors is the introduction of the newest board member Prem Watsa.

It is being said that he is the 'Carl Icaan' of Canada and has a thing for troubled companies. He did after all take Fairfax financial from a $5 publicly traded company to a $415 one. If he is the one driving the change and he is ready to put up a lot of his own money for RIM stock, then this would be the only reason I would believe in change for RIM.

RIM needs a miracle

So

o... I seem to be writing an aweful lot about RIM, which is not what I had intended to do on this blog... but I can't help it, there is just so much news about it and I am sad to see them in their current state. I have worked with RIM so long and can hardly remember when I didn't have a Blackberry in my hand, I really do wish I could be writing with excitement rather than frustratio.
nk
So not too long after I had made my declaration of the RIM deathwatch, we get an earnings report from the company. Which includes:

• nkA significant decline in revenue
• Official delay on the first Blackberry 10 phones until the latter half of 2012
• co-CEOs now working on a $1 a year salary
• Assurances that they will beN turning RIM around once the new smartphones are released.ke 

Essentially things we already knew or expected regarding the decline in revenue and everything else we expected to hear with missed targets and more assurrances.

I am not even sure where to start with this because there really is no hope. Sooner or later all the RIM investors are going to be clamoring for Mike & Jim's heads on a pike and someone to get in there and give them value for their investments. Given that the QNX OS is  not even close to being mature that would lead me to believe we will inevitably see either a split in the company or the sale of it or it's patents.

I am flabbergasted... How can a company with the mountain of mistakes that have been made retain the same structure? Does anyone at all give 2 cents about the fact that the co-CEOs are going to be making $1 a year? The savings are peanuts in comparisons to the money that RIM will be bleeding in the next year or two. Also... does a $1 per year salary make the CEO's any less dilusional (since they will probably make it up in stock)? 

Speaking of delusional, why would anyone think that ramping up spending on marketing the Blackberry 7 platform is a good idea or would even change perception? Does anyone have faith that this will change anything at all? People need an ecosystem and a decent phone experience, I hardly believe that there is a phone store in the world that would be pushing Blackberry phones these days, particularily because of the requirement to lock people into 3 year data contracts. They don't have a plan, that much is obvious from the delays that they keep announcing, particularly the delay to the native e-mail for the Playbook... how hard is that? Everyone has lost faith in you RIM, you need to admit that there is something wrong and do something about it.

I don't think anyone can believe anymore that you can turn it around. You had a good opportunity to build the official iPad competitor, you were in at the right time with the right hardware but with no software or integrated experience. You could have stood a chance and shown the world how good QNX can be, but you rushed it to market as an incomplete product and blew it. Now there is far too much pressure on you to bring your saviour phone to market and when it does come to market, it will be too late. You haven't fixed Playbook, so what should make us think that you are going to have a capable phone with the same OS? The OS is immature and there is not enough time to catch up to the likes of iOS and Android. This next phone will be your make it or break it phone... if you want to stand a chance make sure it is 'actually' ready, just as good as the old ones, but on even footing with all the new smartphones. Anything less will be the last nail in your coffin, as sorry as I am to say that.