I have been watching the news as of late, reading the news and hearing rumours that lead me to believe that it is basically over for RIM, the blackberry is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. I am going to lay out all of my points here and elaborate on them a bit as well as pointing to some recent articles out there.
Now I know that virtually everyone thinks they are doomed to fail (you could be hard pressed to find any positive news on anything other than a blackberry fan site) and I want to believe that they will continue to be a player, but as I have said before, they have not produced anything that could build any sort of confidence.
RIM in my opinion is destined to be sold, most likely on the heels of the release of BB10 if it isn't well received. So the way I figure it, by or before the end of 2013 RIM will be a part of some other company or private equity firm.
So here are the reasons why I think it is over:
1 - Let's start with Blackberry World
Let's face it, Blackberry World was officially the place where we were supposed to be the reason we believe that there will be a come back for RIM and they completely let us down. Can anyone honestly say they would invest time and money in a company who does not show their progress on the OS and hardware of the next generation of Blackberries? Of course not.
They showed off a car running QNX, though it is neat, it will never see the light of day. They also showed off the Blackberry 10 software keyboard which looks neat, but let's face it, Blackberry = Keyboard. But where was the Blackberry device we are supposed to be later in the year? No where. Instead the only thing that was shown was an 'Alpha' device looking very much like an iPhone4 that may or may not be the hardware that will be manufactured before the end of the year.
Bottom Line:
They can wine and dine participants all they want (some of which I understand had their trips paid for) but if you do not show the future of Blackberry here, no one knows what the future of Blackberry will look like and will not have any confidence that you will make it there.
Related Article:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/30/rim-2/
2 - The RIM 'Porche' event
Though this really doesn't have any signifigance in terms of the direction of RIM, it baffles me that they would even hold such an event considering the situation they are in.
RIM is on deaths door and they grab media attention by releasing a very expensive already obsolete device that doesn't really look that good. Sure it might have been created by top designers, but seriously, in a time where you are cutting jobs, stock is losing value and investor confidence is out the window, RIM decides to show of a $2,000 BB7 device.
If anything it just proves that they lack direction and tact, even if they didn't design the device as many articles indicate, what good is it to have a story like this in the media?
Bottom Line:
Even if some rich movie stars buy the blackberry 'Porche', no one else will be. If there is going to be any news coverage it SHOULD be focused on something positive that has a relevant message.
Related Article:
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rims-attempt-to-stand-out-from-the-crowd/article4271845/?service=mobile
3 - First BB10 device will lack a keyboard
I know ths may be minor to some people, but in a time like this RIM is supposed to play on the strengths that they have left one of which is the keyboard on the device. If it doesn't have a keyboard, then the device is really no different than an iOS or Android device, and if that is the case, why would anyone choose it over the others?
That's right, no one would because it is too little too late. By this time we all own other devices with loads of applications, why would we give that up to just to go Blackberry 10, for the OS? I doubt it. The only people that would are enterprise users, but how can they get anything done without a keyboard?
Want insult to injury? BB7 devices cannot go to BB10, guess what their next device is going to be?
Bottom Line:
Without a keyaboard they have overlooked the only individuals who could possibly be interested in moving to BB10. The reception of the device will be ice cold.
Related Articles:
http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp;jsessionid=02344C003D5F9DA84C139E8710A7F16F?rssid=4220853&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fworld%2frim-says-first-blackberry-10-device-will-not-have-a-physical-keyboard%2f2012%2f06%2f21%2fgJQAbDJosV_mobile.mobile&cid=-1&spf=1
http://www.macnn.com/articles/12/05/02/blackberry.7.apps.said.to.be.compatible.with.bb10/
4 - Their focus is consumer not enterprise
With all the coverage there hasn't been much said or shown that would give you a sense on what strategy RIM has to keep it's enterprise stronghold. All I know off the top of my head is that it will have a virtual keyboard that is supposedly neat and a camera that can adjust time. I haven't heard when it will be ready for the enterprise, if it works with existing BES, if encryption and IT policies will remain the same or if it will even function remotely like a BB7 device.
If I am an enterprise and I am looking to deploy some new devices, or know what Mobile Fusion does, shouldn't we be seeing how BB10 and Mobile Fusion were made for each other? Or at the very least be given the expectation that when we deploy a BB10 device, that it will be no different than how a Blackberry is deployed today.
It all seems to be focused on the consumer market, one that they are going to lose regardless of whether or not the BB10 device launch goes well. No one is going to switch.
Bottom Line:
They have only a few strengths left: Their patents, their security, their keyboards, their network, their foothold in the enterprise. They are not playing on any of their strengths and they are not providing enterprises with a warm fuzzy feeling.
Related Article:
http://mashable.com/2012/05/01/rim-blackberry-10-strategy/
5 - The Microsoft Factor
Everyone knows that there are 2 mobile platforms duking it out to be #3 and their names are Microsoft and RIM. RIM has not shown anyone what is new and what direction that their business is going to move in, and Microsoft has partnered with Nokia to start selling Windows phone 7 devices.
That was, until the bomb that was the Los Angeles announcement of the 'Surface Tablets' happened. It was a very exciting announcement for sure, it lacked a lot of detail, but regardless it showed you the direction that Microsoft intended to move and that is straight for the enterprise.
Just look at the drastic changes they are making in Windows 8 and that it even has 2 versions Pro and RT. Couple this with the announcement of Windows Phone 8 and the fact that their 'System Centre 2012' can be used to provision any number of mobile devices.
So where is this going? Well, it is pretty much a direct answer to a companies BYOD problem. Let's see, right now people are:
- Bringing their blackberry and iPhone/Android phone to work.
- Bringing iPads and Android tablets into the workplace because of their portability.
Most people wish they could do everything in one device rather than carry a work phone and a personal phone, but people are not going to be doing this for much longer. They are also using tablets as if they are laptops, but like most people have issues doing day to day tasks such as accessing corporate e-mail or writing documents.
Now, enter the Windows 8 platform:
- System Centre can provision any device, but would probably do much better with a Windows 7 or 8 phone.
- The Surface Pro is practically in the enterprise as we speak. Almost any tech inclined titled officer that saw the presentation saw all of the posibilities that come with the Surface. No more 2 - 7 lb notebook, compatibility with business programs, compatibility for office documents and all this ties right back into Active directory and group policies. These things can be the best managed devices in the enterprise.
In the next 3 - 4 years, no one is going to be carrying a laptop computer it will be the equivalent of the desktop. The only people that will use them will need them for their power while the rest of us just need a PC that will surf the net, access our corporate e-mail and edit our documents.
This is the missing piece that no one has addressed, and if Microsoft can pull it off I think they stand a very good chance of usurping RIMs position in the enterprise and beating Apple and Google to the punch. And with the unique licensing deals that Microsoft has with pretty much every major company, why would they consider buying licenses for things like Mobile Fusion or Good Technology when it will probably come in a nice bundle with other enterprise licenses.
Bottom Line:
Microsoft will most likely take RIMs place in the enterprise and be the 'business' device. Probably won't make significant inroads in the consumer world initially, but that doesn't matter when you have the enterprises all locked up.
Related Articles:
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406066,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03069TX1K0001121&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ziffdavis%2Fpcmag%2Fbreakingnews+%28PCMag.com+Breaking+News%29
http://techland.time.com/2012/06/21/why-microsofts-surface-unveiling-was-so-vaporous/
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406066,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03069TX1K0001121&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ziffdavis%2Fpcmag%2Fbreakingnews+%28PCMag.com+Breaking+News%29
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/10267849
6 - Investors are itching for a sale
And why wouldn't they be? These must be the most patient investors in the world with all of the lines they have had to hear from Ballsillie and Lazaridis over the years about how everything is just fine. I some times wonder to myself what would have happened to RIM if they had been a US company with US investors, would they already have been sold?
Either way, with the stock prices on a downward trend and no visible proof that BB10 will save the day I would be looking for a sale too.
Bottom Line:
RIM has disappointed investors for too long and have just broken the last straw by not proving that BB10 will save the company. They want RIM sold.
Related Article:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/31/rim-running-out-of-options/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FP_TopStories+%28Financial+Post+-+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
7 - Stock price and Layoffs
With all the "Goodbye Thursdays" starting up at RIM it makes you wonder what is going to be left at the end of it all. They have already laid off a bunch of staff earlier on and they are now ramping up to chop another 6000 jobs. And of course a company acting in this manner to save on operating costs pretty much shows that they are not in a good place, so the stock will continue to dive, almost a viscious circle.
But what will be left at the end of the day? That's quite a bit of their workforce gone, how will they keep up with the development? How long will it take people to fill or cover the gaps and ramp up? It almost seems like a natural death where the body shuts down parts of itself bit by bit, protecting the core until the very end.
Bottom Line:
Layoffs will continue, stock will continue to decline, sooner or later they will start reaching into their reserves and when the stock is at it's lowest point ever, they will be purchased. It is not possible for them to catch up as Apple, Google and Microsoft's resources surpassed it even when it was in good shape.
Related Articles:
http://www.therecord.com/iphone/news/article/746194--rim-layoffs-have-begun
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/06/20/rim-stock-layoffs.html
8 - Development
Going back to blackberry world, how many developers want to develop for something that they have never seen, but just have been told that it is easy to develop for?
Recent news says that there are just 5,000 alpha devices out there for developers to work with, so how exactly do they expect developers to ramp up and prepare for the launch of the first BB10 devices? How are we as consumers to expect great applications at launch that compare in any way with what is already on the other platforms?
I don't even think that with the promise of a guaranteed $10,000 for an app can bring in enough developers to develop for the platform in general, let alone before launch. Even not being a mobile developer myself you have to ask yourself how a company that isn't doing well going to fork over $10,000 to every app developer? It probably isn't, it is probably a deal that is so mired in red tape and process that you would be lucky to see any money from RIM. They can't afford to do it.
Bottom Line:
There aren't enough alpha devices nor developers to make enough compelling applications to launch with BB10. I say they will have some big name apps (probably push Angry Birds and Cut the Rope), but nothing significant. Even if they manage to get some good quality apps, no one is going to want to leave the well established app stores of Apple or Google.
Related Articles:
http://mobilesyrup.com/2012/06/18/rim-has-seeded-over-5000-blackberry-10-dev-alpha-devices-to-developers/
http://m.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2012/may/04/rim-blackberry-bb10-development?cat=technology&type=article
9 - RIM partner defection
We heard news this week that Celestica, a company that I understand does a lot of manufacturing for RIM is going to phase out production entirely. Has anyone ever heard a company publicly say that they are distancing themselves from RIM? Some have said it is in preparation for the BB10 device production, but I don't believe that.
This is probably a decision based purely on numbers, and I would think that if the BB7 devices haven't been selling well, then Celestica wouldn't have to manufacture a lot. So if they are now seeing a deep decline in RIM with no hope of recovery, why wouldn't they try to move into other areas to guarantee continued revenue?
Bottom Line:
I believe that this is a trend, and as RIM continues to decline expect to see more defections (though I will be honest, I have no idea how many partners there are).
Related Article:
http://www.engadget.com/2012/06/18/celestica-phases-out-blackberry-related-production-for-rim/
10 - Rumours that BB10 and Mobile Fusion are not enterprise ready
Now I haven't seen many articles about this on the web, but I have heard from people in the field that there are problems with IT Policies and encryption... but I have absolutely no details on that, so take it wait a grain of salt.
I also haven't seen anything online to indicate that they are true or not, but if it is true, this would be the last nail in the coffin.
Bottom Line:
If enterprises cannot come to expect equal or better enterprise security from RIM, then BB10 is dead on arrival in the enterprise. They need this guarantee, and if they don't get it, it might just make this BYOD thing a great idea.
