10 Reasons why Blackberry 10 might be dead before arrival

I have been watching the news as of late, reading the news and hearing rumours that lead me to believe that it is basically over for RIM, the blackberry is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. I am going to lay out all of my points here and elaborate on them a bit as well as pointing to some recent articles out there.

Now I know that virtually everyone thinks they are doomed to fail (you could be hard pressed to find any positive news on anything other than a blackberry fan site) and I want to believe that they will continue to be a player, but as I have said before, they have not produced anything that could build any sort of confidence.

RIM in my opinion is destined to be sold, most likely on the heels of the release of BB10 if it isn't well received. So the way I figure it, by or before the end of 2013 RIM will be a part of some other company or private equity firm.

So here are the reasons why I think it is over:

1 - Let's start with Blackberry World

Let's face it, Blackberry World was officially the place where we were supposed to be the reason we believe that there will be a come back for RIM and they completely let us down. Can anyone honestly say they would invest time and money in a company who does not show their progress on the OS and hardware of the next generation of Blackberries? Of course not.

They showed off a car running QNX, though it is neat, it will never see the light of day. They also showed off the Blackberry 10 software keyboard which looks neat, but let's face it, Blackberry = Keyboard. But where was the Blackberry device we are supposed to be later in the year? No where. Instead the only thing that was shown was an 'Alpha' device looking very much like an iPhone4 that may or may not be the hardware that will be manufactured before the end of the year.

Bottom Line:

They can wine and dine participants all they want (some of which I understand had their trips paid for) but if you do not show the future of Blackberry here, no one knows what the future of Blackberry will look like and will not have any confidence that you will make it there.

Related Article:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/30/rim-2/

2 - The RIM 'Porche' event

Though this really doesn't have any signifigance in terms of the direction of RIM, it baffles me that they would even hold such an event considering the situation they are in.

RIM is on deaths door and they grab media attention by releasing a very expensive already obsolete device that doesn't really look that good. Sure it might have been created by top designers, but seriously, in a time where you are cutting jobs, stock is losing value and investor confidence is out the window, RIM decides to show of a $2,000 BB7 device.

If anything it just proves that they lack direction and tact, even if they didn't design the device as many articles indicate, what good is it to have a story like this in the media?

Bottom Line:

Even if some rich movie stars buy the blackberry 'Porche', no one else will be. If there is going to be any news coverage it SHOULD be focused on something positive that has a relevant message.

Related Article: 

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rims-attempt-to-stand-out-from-the-crowd/article4271845/?service=mobile

3 - First BB10 device will lack a keyboard

I know ths may be minor to some people, but in a time like this RIM is supposed to play on the strengths that they have left one of which is the keyboard on the device. If it doesn't have a keyboard, then the device is really no different than an iOS or Android device, and if that is the case, why would anyone choose it over the others?

That's right, no one would because it is too little too late. By this time we all own other devices with loads of applications, why would we give that up to just to go Blackberry 10, for the OS? I doubt it. The only people that would are enterprise users, but how can they get anything done without a keyboard?

Want insult to injury? BB7 devices cannot go to BB10, guess what their next device is going to be?

Bottom Line:

Without a keyaboard they have overlooked the only individuals who could possibly be interested in moving to BB10. The reception of the device will be ice cold.

Related Articles:


http://mobile.washingtonpost.com/rss.jsp;jsessionid=02344C003D5F9DA84C139E8710A7F16F?rssid=4220853&item=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fworld%2frim-says-first-blackberry-10-device-will-not-have-a-physical-keyboard%2f2012%2f06%2f21%2fgJQAbDJosV_mobile.mobile&cid=-1&spf=1

http://www.macnn.com/articles/12/05/02/blackberry.7.apps.said.to.be.compatible.with.bb10/

4 - Their focus is consumer not enterprise

With all the coverage there hasn't been much said or shown that would give you a sense on what strategy RIM has to keep it's enterprise stronghold. All I know off the top of my head is that it will have a virtual keyboard that is supposedly neat and a camera that can adjust time. I haven't heard when it will be ready for the enterprise, if it works with existing BES, if encryption and IT policies will remain the same or if it will even function remotely like a BB7 device.

If I am an enterprise and I am looking to deploy some new devices, or know what Mobile Fusion does, shouldn't we be seeing how BB10 and Mobile Fusion were made for each other? Or at the very least be given the expectation that when we deploy a BB10 device, that it will be no different than how a Blackberry is deployed today.

It all seems to be focused on the consumer market, one that they are going to lose regardless of whether or not the BB10 device launch goes well. No one is going to switch.

Bottom Line: 

They have only a few strengths left: Their patents, their security, their keyboards, their network, their foothold in the enterprise. They are not playing on any of their strengths and they are not providing enterprises with a warm fuzzy feeling.

Related Article:

http://mashable.com/2012/05/01/rim-blackberry-10-strategy/

5 - The Microsoft Factor

Everyone knows that there are 2 mobile platforms duking it out to be #3 and their names are Microsoft and RIM. RIM has not shown anyone what is new and what direction that their business is going to move in, and Microsoft has partnered with Nokia to start selling Windows phone 7 devices.

That was, until the bomb that was the Los Angeles announcement of the 'Surface Tablets' happened. It was a very exciting announcement for sure, it lacked a lot of detail, but regardless it showed you the direction that Microsoft intended to move and that is straight for the enterprise.

Just look at the drastic changes they are making in Windows 8 and that it even has 2 versions Pro and RT. Couple this with the announcement of Windows Phone 8 and the fact that their 'System Centre 2012' can be used to provision any number of mobile devices.

So where is this going? Well, it is pretty much a direct answer to a companies BYOD problem. Let's see, right now people are:

• Bringing their blackberry and iPhone/Android phone to work.
• Bringing iPads and Android tablets into the workplace because of their portability.

Most people wish they could do everything in one device rather than carry a work phone and a personal phone, but people are not going to be doing this for much longer. They are also using tablets as if they are laptops, but like most people have issues doing day to day tasks such as accessing corporate e-mail or writing documents.

Now, enter the Windows 8 platform:

• System Centre can provision any device, but would probably do much better with a Windows 7 or 8 phone.
• The Surface Pro is practically in the enterprise as we speak. Almost any tech inclined titled officer that saw the presentation saw all of the posibilities that come with the Surface. No more 2 - 7 lb notebook, compatibility with business programs, compatibility for office documents and all this ties right back into Active directory and group policies. These things can be the best managed devices in the enterprise.

In the next 3 - 4 years, no one is going to be carrying a laptop computer it will be the equivalent of the desktop. The only people that will use them will need them for their power while the rest of us just need a PC that will surf the net, access our corporate e-mail and edit our documents.

This is the missing piece that no one has addressed, and if Microsoft can pull it off I think they stand a very good chance of usurping RIMs position in the enterprise and beating Apple and Google to the punch. And with the unique licensing deals that Microsoft has with pretty much every major company, why would they consider buying licenses for things like Mobile Fusion or Good Technology when it will probably come in a nice bundle with other enterprise licenses.

Bottom Line:

Microsoft will most likely take RIMs place in the enterprise and be the 'business' device. Probably won't make significant inroads in the consumer world initially, but that doesn't matter when you have the enterprises all locked up.

Related Articles:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406066,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03069TX1K0001121&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ziffdavis%2Fpcmag%2Fbreakingnews+%28PCMag.com+Breaking+News%29

http://techland.time.com/2012/06/21/why-microsofts-surface-unveiling-was-so-vaporous/

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406066,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03069TX1K0001121&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ziffdavis%2Fpcmag%2Fbreakingnews+%28PCMag.com+Breaking+News%29

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/10267849

6 - Investors are itching for a sale

And why wouldn't they be? These must be the most patient investors in the world with all of the lines they have had to hear from Ballsillie and Lazaridis over the years about how everything is just fine. I some times wonder to myself what would have happened to RIM if they had been a US company with US investors, would they already have been sold?

Either way, with the stock prices on a downward trend and no visible proof that BB10 will save the day I would be looking for a sale too.

Bottom Line:

RIM has disappointed investors for too long and have just broken the last straw by not proving that BB10 will save the company. They want RIM sold.

Related Article:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/31/rim-running-out-of-options/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FP_TopStories+%28Financial+Post+-+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

7 - Stock price and Layoffs

With all the "Goodbye Thursdays" starting up at RIM it makes you wonder what is going to be left at the end of it all. They have already laid off a bunch of staff earlier on and they are now ramping up to chop another 6000 jobs. And of course a company acting in this manner to save on operating costs pretty much shows that they are not in a good place, so the stock will continue to dive, almost a viscious circle.

But what will be left at the end of the day? That's quite a bit of their workforce gone, how will they keep up with the development? How long will it take people to fill or cover the gaps and ramp up? It almost seems like a natural death where the body shuts down parts of itself bit by bit, protecting the core until the very end.

Bottom Line: 

Layoffs will continue, stock will continue to decline, sooner or later they will start reaching into their reserves and when the stock is at it's lowest point ever, they will be purchased. It is not possible for them to catch up as Apple, Google and Microsoft's resources surpassed it even when it was in good shape.

Related Articles:

http://www.therecord.com/iphone/news/article/746194--rim-layoffs-have-begun

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/06/20/rim-stock-layoffs.html

8 - Development

Going back to blackberry world, how many developers want to develop for something that they have never seen, but just have been told that it is easy to develop for?

Recent news says that there are just 5,000 alpha devices out there for developers to work with, so how exactly do they expect developers to ramp up and prepare for the launch of the first BB10 devices? How are we as consumers to expect great applications at launch that compare in any way with what is already on the other platforms?

I don't even think that with the promise of a guaranteed $10,000 for an app can bring in enough developers to develop for the platform in general, let alone before launch. Even not being a mobile developer myself you have to ask yourself how a company that isn't doing well going to fork over $10,000 to every app developer? It probably isn't, it is probably a deal that is so mired in red tape and process that you would be lucky to see any money from RIM. They can't afford to do it.

Bottom Line: 

There aren't enough alpha devices nor developers to make enough compelling applications to launch with BB10. I say they will have some big name apps (probably push Angry Birds and Cut the Rope), but nothing significant. Even if they manage to get some good quality apps, no one is going to want to leave the well established app stores of Apple or Google.

Related Articles:

http://mobilesyrup.com/2012/06/18/rim-has-seeded-over-5000-blackberry-10-dev-alpha-devices-to-developers/

http://m.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2012/may/04/rim-blackberry-bb10-development?cat=technology&type=article

9 - RIM partner defection

We heard news this week that Celestica, a company that I understand does a lot of manufacturing for RIM is going to phase out production entirely. Has anyone ever heard a company publicly say that they are distancing themselves from RIM? Some have said it is in preparation for the BB10 device production, but I don't believe that.

This is probably a decision based purely on numbers, and I would think that if the BB7 devices haven't been selling well, then Celestica wouldn't have to manufacture a lot. So if they are now seeing a deep decline in RIM with no hope of recovery, why wouldn't they try to move into other areas to guarantee continued revenue?

Bottom Line:

I believe that this is a trend, and as RIM continues to decline expect to see more defections (though I will be honest, I have no idea how many partners there are).

Related Article: 

http://www.engadget.com/2012/06/18/celestica-phases-out-blackberry-related-production-for-rim/

10 - Rumours that BB10 and Mobile Fusion are not enterprise ready

Now I haven't seen many articles about this on the web, but I have heard from people in the field that there are problems with IT Policies and encryption... but I have absolutely no details on that, so take it wait a grain of salt.

I also haven't seen anything online to indicate that they are true or not, but if it is true, this would be the last nail in the coffin.

Bottom Line: 

If enterprises cannot come to expect equal or better enterprise security from RIM, then BB10 is dead on arrival in the enterprise. They need this guarantee, and if they don't get it, it might just make this BYOD thing a great idea.

Samsung Galaxy Gio on Cyanogen Mod 7

So originally I had posted how great it was to get an Android device for next to nothing, which is a great thing. Who can argue at getting "almost" the same Android experience as someone who is technically spending $800 for $80... 10 x times less cost! The only real problems (that I have found so far) are this:

• The screen is small.
• There is no gorilla glass... be prepared for scratches and definitely put on a protective film. I have had to order and replace the digitizer because of an unfortunate key incident. Only upside is that it is now white, not black.
• If you want to use it "like" a regular Android phone, you need to root it. 150MB of memory goes away pretty fast, so you need to use a2SD, s2e (simple2ext) or Link2SD (i recommend this if you are just going to root and that is it). Having an extra partition on your Micro SD card tricks your phone into thinking you have 2 - 4GB of internal memory, so you can load up all the apps you want without having the low internal memory show up.
• No hardware decoding. I thought I was good to go for watching netflix or streaming some stuff over DLNA, but I was wrong. It only does software decoding, and it is pretty slow. It is fine for videos you have on your SD card, but streaming and decoding is definitely a problem... or maybe not if you don't mind the sound being 10 seconds later than the video.
• No auto brightness. You might not think this is much, but it is SUPER annoying. Rather than having your phone adjust to your environment you are stuck trying to manually brighten the screen when you are out in the sun, and dim the screen when you are in a dark room.
• Game compatibility. No jelly defense people, though it is a shame it is not like you couldn't see this one coming with the specs of the phone and the price point.

Aside from the above, I doubt you would really have a different experience than any other Android phone out there, since they all seem to be running Gingerbread. But that is for the stock ROM, it is so very much different when you are running a custom ROM such as Cyanogen Mod 7 (CM7), which is what prompted me to write this post in the first place.

I "used" to be the guy that would hack something right off the bat to try and get the most functionality that I could out of the technology that I buy. Over time though (with the family factor), this has changed and now I am the guy that only hacks if it is needed because I have no time at all to play with it, it just needs to work. So that being said, when I bought the phone, I fully intended to use it "as is" until I ran into the memory issue, which forced me to root the phone. More recently I found that my phone was slowing down and all the pre-loaded carrier garbage was taking up prescious memory that kept cutting off my podcasts to the point where I had to press the play button once every 10 seconds. Enough was enough, so I decided that it was about time that I do something about the problem.

Doing the research

So, from past experience on other devices I wanted to get all the information up front so I don't end up with a phone that won't boot for days since I have done something terribly wrong to the OS, so I sent out on a search on changing out the ROM on the Galaxy Gio 5660M (Bell Canada).

The first thing that I noticed most (as a person just getting into upgrading my ROM for the first time) was that this process seemed a little overwhelming,  while you can appreciate that Android is open and hackable, there is literally too much information to sort through when you first approach this sort of thing and that scared me a little bit, but not enough to stop.

At first it was slow going, as I got sidetracked trying to figure out whether or not I absolutely had to use a proram called "ODIN" or not; lucky for me I didn't and cld go forward from there with the following requirements to get this ROM installed on my phone:

1. You need to be rooted first off.
2. You need to get the clockwork mod (CWM) installed to replace the default recovery. 
3. You need to use CWM to first, re-partition your SD Card (Gio Only, for that 'extra space') and backup your stock ROM (which in this case is CM7) in the event that you want to revert back to the factory OS.
4. You need to download the phiexz version of the Cynogen Mod ROM and place it on the root of your SD card. I downloaded the file update-cm-7.2.0-20120518-Nightly-gio-AROMA.zip, you should be able to find it or a newer nightly build online by searching for the file. Start the upgrade process.

1 - Rooting

Rooting an Android device seems to be the same for the most part from what I have read around the web and consists of downloading some variation of an "Update.zip" file and using that to update the device in the recovery menu.

I won't go into too much detail as they did a great job on this tutorial at Android Authority on how to root the gio. You can find that here along with the files you need: http://www.androidauthority.com/galaxy-gio-s5660-root-68206/

2 - Clockwork Mod (CWM)

This is where I had initially thought things would get tricky as I had tried to do this a while ago via ODIN and failed. I took a stab at this again because as I understand it from everything I have read it is essential to installing custom ROMS.

I had initially found the latest version of CWM and simply downloaded it to my MicroSD card and ran the update. It did install, but there is something in the configuration where I was not able to mount '/cache', '/data' or '/system' which was a problem. Without being able to mount any of those file systems I was not able to do anything basically, let alone try to back up my existing stock ROM.

So when searching for why this was happening I came across an article that told me I needed a special CWM for the Gio called px-cwm-v2.zip. I found it here: http://www.mediafire.com/?p7r2bcn9447bpc8 but I am sure you can find it elsewhere if you search for it.

Once I had this and ran the update again from recovery mode, all was well and I was able to take my backup without issue.

If you are interested in knowing more about CWM, you can find another tutorial here (see... the power of open source and the communities around them? I barely have to write anything!): http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=1587607

3 - Repartitioning the SD Card

I am hoping that this little section will save you some time. Up to this point I was using Link2SD on my rooted stock ROM and it was working great. I ended up creating 2 FAT partitions on my MicoSD card using EASUS Partition Manager. But what I did find after loading custom ROMs multiple times is that it is best to leave that work to CWM.

My advice to you would be to do the following:

• Backup all the contents of your MicroSD card elsewhere (because you will lose all your stuff out of the gate if you just partition with CWM).
• Reboot your phone, go into recovery and then go to the advanced tools and select the option for partitioning your card.
• It will ask you what size, I picked 2048, don't think I will have any large apps, but I think you can go up to 4GB in size.
• Once you have finished partitioning, just pop the MicroSD into a card reader and copy all your backup data back.

The reason I am suggesting this up front is that the version of CM7 I used comes with the option of using A2SD or S2E right in the ROM, so you don't have to do anything funky to get it working other than having your MicroSD card partitioned properly.

4 - Downloading and installing CM7

As I mentioned earlier, I had installed various versions of the custom ROMs. I intially started out thinking that I wanted to get the latest and greatest version of Android and went for the Gio build of ICS (cm_gio_galaxyics-10062012.zip). Initially it was a total failure, the install went fine, but when rebooting my phone was stuck either with a blank screen or in a boot loop. So I decided to try the older version of CM, which is how I got to CM7. Oddly enough, after successfully installing CM7 and again trying to install CM9 Beta8 (ICS) it actually worked... but I couldn't live with a camera that wouldn't show me what I am taking a picture of... will wait for that to mature a bit futher.

So back to CM7, all you really need to do as mentioned above many times is to copy the ROM to your MicroSD card and then go into CWM and select an update from the MicroSD card and apply it (just make sure you pick S2E in the setup, leave everything else as default). Simple! Once the install is finished, it will simply reboot right into your new OS, it will just take a little bit longer on the first boot to get into the phone.

Post Upgrade

First of all... I can't sing enough praises to the people that are working on Cyanogen Mod as well as Phiexz and others. If you go through the above process with their version of CM7 there is an amazing install (not sure if it is part of this build alone or for CM7 in general), it's as if you are installing a commercial OS!

The difference between the stock ROM and CM7 is night and day. Here are the benefits I noticed off the top (have been using it only 2 days before this post):

• It is noticably faster.
• You are not forced to use the apps that Samsung defines at the bottom, it includes ADWLauncher and themes you can select during ROM install. I picked the ICS theme.
• My battery lasts a bit longer.
• No more bloatware (no Samsung or Bell apps loading into memory).
• Oh... so much more configurable, I would almost say that there are too many options.
• Build in S2E... provided you have the partitions set up right before the ROM install you can in and configure everything to go to the other partition. And unlike Link2SD, where it links stuff to the MicroSD card after install, S2E just installs it straight to MicroSD.
• WAYYYYYY Better Camera Software. I am not kidding... it is night and day difference and it is much more convenient to use. Tons of new options that are quickly configurable.
• Cool screen shut down (like an old style CRT shutting off with the line down the middle)... not big, but cool.

I was on the fence about doing this earlier, but I am 100% in favour of anyone using the Galaxy Gio to do this and get a much better Android experience out of your phone.

I will post some of the screenshots up when I get a chance to.